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Directories
Reproduction
I’m currently taking a course, “Measures and Models of Demography,” and today we were discussing calculating fertility and birth rates and how these calculations have had to change quite a bit for developed countries recently because of technology and cultural changes. Combining this with my reading of books on genetics like Genome, The Red Queen, and Adam’s Curse (all worth a read), I’ve started thinking about reproduction and new reproductive technologies.
We now have the ability to allow infertile people to reproduce. On the one hand, this seems counterproductive to the survival of the species, because the children produced will likely be infertile or have fertility problems. But then again, they will have access to the same or better technologies, so should these people really be considered infertile anymore?
Then there is adoption. Adopted children generally replace biological children that would have been produced by the adoptive person. So, from a genetic perspective, these people are sacrificing their resources to aid the spread of other individuals’ genes at the expense of spreading their own. I suppose this is good for the species as a whole, but doesn’t seem good for the adopting individual. Additionally, it would be smart for the individual giving the baby up for adoption, because they are spreading their genes without having to give up any resources for child-rearing, allowing them to produce more children than they could raise on their own.
I know that reproduction and adoption are not just thought of from a genetic level; that we need to provide families for all children and that raising any child (whether genetically your own or not) is satisfying. These are just thoughts I’ve been having.
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South Beach Diet and the low-carb craze
I just attended an interesting lecture on age trajectories of mortality. Since I’m now working at one of the world’s preeminent demographic research centers, I thought I would share some insights. Japan is the healthiest, most robust, oldest living population in the world, with Japanese women living an average of 85 years. The age expectancy of Japanese goes up by 2.5 years every decade (r-squared=0.98) and this is expected to continue for the foreseeable future. The Japanese diet includes quite a lot of rice, which is a carbohydrate.
Here are some excerpts from an MSNBC article with similar, but boiled-down, content:
In a country where the average life span has extended to 81.9 years, Japan’s elderly are not only the longest-lived but statistically the healthiest seniors in the world. The typical Japanese now enjoys at least 75 years of relative good health, according to the World Health Organization. That exceeds by nearly six years the average for Americans — who rank 23rd…
“Japanese seniors are not only living longer but their health is generally excellent, and as a group, they appear to be getting healthier,” said Koichi Ando, assistant director of elderly affairs at the Health Ministry…
Studies indicate a multitude of reasons for the health of older people, with most citing a traditional diet heavy on fish and light on red meat, as well as the consumption of high-fiber rice. A national survey in 2000 showed that almost 63.6 percent of seniors don’t overeat, 49.6 percent exercise regularly and 64.2 percent sleep well…
In 2002, the United States, with a population of 283 million, had roughly 50,000 centenarians, but only about 13 percent of them were living independently. In contrast, in Japan, a nation of 128 million, there are 23,000 centenarians, with about 35 percent of them living independently, according to government statistics and research studies in both Japan and the United States…
Additionally, Italians have excellent cardiac health and also eat a high carbohydrate diet, but low in red meat and high in fish, and they exercise regularly. Wasn’t the South Beach Diet written by a cardiologist as a diet for his patients? Seems to me like his ideas go against scientific evidence, rather than with it…
Germany’s view of America
Rainer told me that he watched a program on German TV where Germany’s top newscasters discussed the German view of America. Over the years since WWII, consistently 85-90% of Germans had a positive view of America. When George W. took office, this percentage dropped to about 65%, then after September 11, it rose back to 90%. Once “W” decided to go to war with Iraq, the percentage dropped to 20% and has stayed there ever since.
There is also a new hit song criticizing politicians by the popular German band Die Ärzte (The Physicians). The video shows a guy in a cowboy hat on a ranch having a good ole time driving a remote controlled tank over models of the landmarks of Europe. Here is my translation of the lyrics:
DIE KLÜGSTEN MÄNNER DER WELT (The wisest men of the world)
They look dapper and are charming.
Are well-dressed and elegant.
Each one’s a hero –
those are the wisest men of the world.
They smile at the press corps,
and no answer fails them.
Carefully managing our money –
the wisest men of the world.
They decide for us.
Yes, they suffer for us.
Our mysteries will be illuminated through them –
those are the wisest men of the world.
They know how, they know when,
and what one can expect of us.
Because we often miss the big picture,
we voted them into office.
Sometimes they make themselves unpopular.
It is often difficult for us to understand them.
Politics is a complicated field –
but not for the wisest men of the world.
They decide for us.
Yes, they suffer for us.
Our mysteries will be illuminated through them –
those are the wisest men of the world.
If soon everything blazes and burns,
and the earth quakes from the bombardment.
If nothing more remains for us, but to pray for salvation
then let them eulogize us –
the wisest men on our planet.
Argh, the disappointment…
After reading several news websites, I think that CNN International erred when reporting that Virginia was a battleground state. The CNN website reports Virginia is “Likely Bush.”
So, Bush says of Kerry, “You cannot win a war you do not believe in fighting.” We’re still at war? Didn’t Bush say, “my fellow Americans, major combat operations in Iraq have ended. In the battle of Iraq, the United States and our allies have prevailed, ” in his speech aboard the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln on May 1, 2003? I don’t know, but I’m pretty sure that major combat operations in Iraq have not yet ended, one-and-a-half years later.
On the missing explosives and the war in Iraq in general, I agree with Kerry’s statement: “[the] incredible incompetence of this president and this administration has put our troops at risk and put this country at greater risk than we ought to be. … The unbelievable blindness, stubbornness, arrogance of this administration to do the basics has now allowed this president to once again fail the test of being the commander in chief.”
Another disappointment: CNN has something called the “Poll of polls,” in which they average polls of likely voters. They find 49% of likely voters for Bush and 46% for Kerry. I was not able to reproduce their results. Using the polls they cite, I obtained 50% for Bush and 46% for Kerry with a 1.5% margin of error. Unfortunately, that means we can have 95% confidence that Bush has the lead. But this does assume that the polls were conducted similarly and that there was no one who participated in multiple polls.
Virginia is for Lovers
Well, I just noticed last night that Virginia is a battleground state in this election, so my vote does count! Woohoo!
Depressingly, the polls show Bush with a slight lead, but it is within the margin of error, and I haven’t seen these broken down by state. Wouldn’t it be funny if Bush won the popular vote this year and Kerry won the electorate. I think that would be hilarious.
In other notes, the pig nose was gone this morning. I was saving it so Rainer could see it (and clean it up) when he comes today. Oh well.
Pig noses…
This weekend was also a disturbing weekend because I found a pig nose in my flowerbed. A real pig nose. It was completely disgusting. I have no idea how it got there. Rainer suggests that it was either some teenage boys playing a joke or someone doesn’t like us. But if it’s teenage boys, it would only be funny if they saw my reaction, and if it’s someone who doesn’t like us, why a pig nose? Where does one purchase pig noses anyway?
Troublemaking bunnies!
My bunnies got in some serious trouble this weekend. Because my walls are getting torn down, they had to be moved to the bathroom, which I bunny-proofed, of course. So, I was upstairs reading (The Alienist - very good) when the power went out suddenly. I ran downstairs, hoping not to find a fried bunny. Luckily, they were fine, but somehow they managed to get over the 4 foot barriers I’d erected and chewed through the cord to my washing machine. What a pain! And they were casually hopping around, doing their best to look like innocent little bunnies. I tried my best to lecture them on the dangers of electricity, but I just don’t think it sunk in. Hmpf. What is the deal with bunnies and electrical cords anyway?
On a positive side, Franklin was sitting on my lap afterwards, which he never liked before and Grumpy was completely fine with being picked up. Maybe they were just sucking up because they felt guilty. I’ll have to see if this behavior continues.
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